It forecast India’s headline inflation at 4.2 per cent (average) in 2025 with food inflation at 4.6 per cent.
Representative Image (Photo: Getty)
Goldman Sachs said that riding over continued fiscal consolidation and slower credit growth, India’s GDP growth will “decelerate” to 6.3 per cent in 2025.
It forecast India’s headline inflation at 4.2 per cent (average) in 2025 with food inflation at 4.6 per cent.
In its latest report titled ‘India 2025 outlook: Standing firm in an uncertain world’, Goldman Sachs said, “Food supply shocks due to weather-related disruptions remain the key risk to this view.”
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It said India’s strong long-term structural growth story remains intact, driven by favorable demographics and stable governance. The Indian economy is also relatively more insulated against global shocks.
Goldman Sachs believed that in 2025, India will likely be a relatively insulated economy from global shocks emanating out of a potential trade war between the US and China.
It pushed back its forecast for the start of repo rate easing by the RBI to first quarter of 2025 but continues to expect only a 50 basis points cumulative cuts by mid-year.
Elevated and volatile food inflation, mainly driven by vegetable prices due to weather shocks, has kept the RBI from easing monetary policy, it said.
“While the cyclical growth slowdown calls for easier monetary conditions in our view, the “stronger dollar” scenario will mean the RBI will likely proceed cautiously,” said Goldman Sachs.
In its last MPC held in October, the RBI decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent with a majority of 5 out of 6 members.
On the GDP growth, the Governor said the real GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent for FY24-25.
He also highlighted CPI inflation projections and said the CPI Inflation for FY24-25 is projected at 4.5 per cent. For Q2, the inflation is projected at 4.1 per cent, Q3 at 4.8 per cent and Q4 at 4.2 per cent.
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